Author Archives: noname

Holding to account Part 1

The mantra so beloved of politicians (current and retired), organisations / ‘influencers’ with some focussed agenda, and ex-officers from public service is about holding an incumbent political party, organisation or agency ‘to account’.

There was a time when having oversight was positive for society, but that was in a era where any criticism was aimed at a policy, not individuals i.e. ‘the ball and not the man’; it was most valid and useful where those levelling such criticism were prepared to propose alternative courses of actions or strategies.

However, increasingly political environments have become much more polarised and hence divisive, and where there was valuable oversight, the emphasis now is to impugn the integrity, intellect and even physical characteristics of those with whom the protagonist disagrees, Nowhere has this been more evident that in the court of King Donald.

Politically, opposition has become completely focussed on looking for avenues to tarnish both man and ball as the end purpose in itself. This is no longer productive. The same trait applies through visible public life, whether by union leaders, TV interviewers, pundits, what the Daily Mail calls ‘experts’ and so on. The assumption is now that every decision or action of the opponent is flawed and self-evidently wrong, and those involved in decision making are mentally challenged, downright incompetent and probably corrupt adulterers too.

However, too often this is a shield for either having no credible alternative policies to voice, and more particularly the knowledge that any alternatives will be subject to the same vitriolic attacks from the erstwhile victims; consider, who knows what labour’s policy on Brexit was before the last election ?? Easier to slag off rather than propose.

In politics, religion, management and life there are those that believe (often passionately) A and those that (equally passionately) believe B. As society becomes more polarised, there is, more often that not, little common ground. Dissent and disagreement is baked in. But ultimately, either by war or elections, one or other side’s broad views prevail, albeit often with some compromise of their original position to maintain social stability.

Grumpy yearns for the days when ‘oversight’ had some value, and generally accepted by both targets and observers as valid comment; and, whether or not there was agreement, at least the sides generally showed civility and respect for each other. In the era of Trump, however, belittling, denigrating and the use of personal insults have become the new norms of politics, and it does not augur well for stability – and indeed fairness – in society.

Hong Kong Hypocrisy

As Grumpy has written before, the history of the British in Hong Kong is not one which brings them any respect. Britain went to war with China twice to enforce their role as a state driven narcotics dealer, resulting in the deaths of thousands of Chinese citizens. Having acquired control of the territory by acts of war, its citizens were then subject to rule by a foreign power without any democratic participation.

So for a century and a half no Hong Kong citizen ever had the right to vote for those who ruled them. The British, in an extraordinary act of breathtaking hypocrisy, then sought at the end of their occupation to dictate to a state recovering its own lands that its citizens should have freedoms that they never had for 156 years under their British oppressors.

China is now the latest scapegoat rolled out by Donald Trump to avoid taking any responsibility for the deaths of 100,000 Americans. The US (and other countries) point to Beijing implementing by edict laws covering “treason, secession, sedition, subversion”, as being indicative of the sort of repressive laws that could be expected from a communist government. Grumpy is no apologist for China or communism, but the facts deserve to be stated in an balanced rather than Trumpian way.

1 Article 23 of the ‘Basic Law’ (essentially a constitution for Hong Kong) states that the HKSAR Legislative Council “… shall enact laws on its own to prohibit any act of
treason, secession, sedition, subversion against the Central People’s Government
(CPG) …”. Critically, the UK government agreed this term in the hand over arrangements. However, the Legislative Council have failed to implement this agreed provision in Hong Kong Basic Law, so after 17 years of inaction Beijing has stepped in to implement the joint agreement.

2 The Basic Law also sets out in Articles 27 and 39 the freedoms that citizens would enjoy for 50 years, which are no less than the denizens of the UK or the USA have, bar universal suffrage. The lack of laws covering treason etc. (which every country has) was because the Basic Law supplanted the then PRC law, which is why Article 23 was included.

3 Trump and UK detractors have focused on the words of Article 23 as representing a repressive regime. Yet (for example) sedition remained a crime on the UK statute books until 2009, and treason remains a crime. In the US, the legal code in Chapter 115 covers “Treason Sedition and Subversive activities” , essentially identical to those proposed by Beijing. The man (to use his own words), seems to be “as dumb as a rock”.

4 The US and elements in the UK push a scenario where it was envisaged the end situation in Hong Kong from ‘one country, two systems’ would be universal suffrage. This is pure sophistry; surely no-one, including the last governor, Chris Patten, surely imagined that there would be universal suffrage in 2047. This is certainly not part of the Basic Law. Hong Kong is, and has been for 20 years, both ‘Chinese’ and ‘China’.

5 Britain retains a colonial mindset and an attitude of arrogance which should have gone with the ending of Empire. Perhaps it is because the transfer of Hong Kong was the last vestige of empire that approach this still lingers. The initial acquisition of Hong Kong was a shameful episode in a long list of acts of war undertaken to brutally subjugate foreign peoples for domestic commercial gain by both successive sovereigns and the aristocracy, albeit ennoblement was generally the result of such acts.

6 The UK, with little land and few natural physical resources and now no empire to pillage, must look to see its future evolve by the soft resource of intellect, where it has a history of which it can be proud.

Footnote : Lest the reader might venture that Grumpy had no knowledge of the region or of Chinese culture, he would note that he was a director of a Group headquartered in Hong Kong, and he travelled there frequently over the years. His general impression of the mindset of the Chinese staff was that they were less interested in politics than having a good job and the opportunity to earn high wages,

Delusional Sadiq Khan’t

Boris Johnson’s attempt to ease lockdown is confusing, opaque, and above all, contradictory; but nowhere more than for London. However, his efforts to perplex people have been totally eclipsed by the irrationality and logical contradictions in the response by the wholly inadequate Mayor of London, Sadiq Khan.

In summary, BoJo urged people to return to work where possible as part of the easing of COVID restrictions, but to avoid public transport in so doing. The reason for this last restriction was simply because social distancing is obviously impossible for London commutes at the best of times, but on the highly reduced current train, tube and bus services even more so. What he didn’t explain is how this would work for the 750,000 workers who normally commute daily into Central London by train. So Bojo’s edict is is fine for commuters in Cumnor, Oxfordshire (pop 5,700), but patently impossible for London.

Numbers first. Taking Government figures, the average London commute is over 70 minutes. In normal times, around 750,000 to 800,000 passengers arrive in the morning peak in the London Terminal stations, to then filter through to their place of work. The fact that they have arrived by train surely indicates that these citizens did not live within walking or cycling distance – in fact, the same Government figures show the average London commuter journey to be 13 miles each way.

Now to Sadiq, with ultimate responsibility for commuter infrastructure in London. On 15/05/20, he stated in a tweet “Londoners will not be able to use TfL in anywhere near the same numbers for the foreseeable future. That’s why we’re finding new ways for people to cycle and walk, including creating one of the largest car-free areas in any capital in the world.” His fascination with cycling probably results from rendering TfL to be near bankruptcy as a result of a £2 billion hit from his freezing fares for the last 4 years. His approach is exemplified by his recent extortion of a further £1.5 billion from the taxpayer to fund his unworkable transport schemes.

Ok, so perhaps those returning to work could drive into town ? Well, first of all, the Congestion Charge is to be hiked to £15 per day, just to deter those contemplating not walking or cycling the average 13 miles into work. However, to underscore this, Sadiq is to ban cars from those very areas where commuters are most likely to be bound for. However , (polluting diesel) buses will be allowed in the car free zones, but of course not many of them. (“not … anywhere near the same numbers”)

None of this is remotely coherent, and the statements by both BoJo and Khan (who probably lives with ambling distance of City Hall in some grace and favour pad) are conflicting at best and downright meaningless in their implausibility of implementation.

Assume that 40% of those isolating who work in central London go back to work, just how do either of these blustering, sound bite driven, con men expect some maybe 400,000 commuters to get to work? Having largely eradicated the possibility of car, tube, or bus, it seems that walking or cycling 13 miles to work every day apparently remains the only option offered for the significant majority.

How Sadiq Khan’t imagines, even in his wildest fantasies, a few hundred thousand commuters at average distances can really cycle or walk (4.3 hours each way for the average commuter) into the city? He is either delusional or incapable of understanding commuter demographics – the man is, simply put, not up to the job.

BoJo recently had a near death physical experience at the hands of a virus. When these two inept politicians are eventually (as they will be) put to the popular vote, they may well expect political eradication at the hands of rational voters tired of their inability to convert a punchy strap line into workable and coherent strategies.

Kier’s odd appointment

Grumpy was surprised at the appointment by Kier Starmer of David Lammy as the Shadow Secretary of State for Justice. Lammy’s ‘paper’ CV is fine (but not exceptional) but surely many will be questioning the wisdom of this decision.

Given the sensitive nature of the role, one would assume that the job specification calls for someone who is balanced in outlook, not divisive, cautious in public utterances, and capable of instilling confidence of their neutral and considered approach in the majority of the populace. These characteristics are surely crucial in maintaining respect of the law in the eyes of the bulk of citizens.

Grumpy does not need to list the many controversial pronouncements Lammy has made over the years – they are well documented. Suffice it to say that they indicate a person whose inherent characteristics would not meet the criteria listed above.

What, for example, is Mr Lammy’s view of the Supreme Court of the UK? 10 white, middle aged men and two women; 10 went to Oxbridge and two to other prestigous universities. They appear to represent the very antithesis of of his presumed views on the mechanisms for the discharge of justice. Will he be seeking change here ?

Will he control his tendency to promulgate unproven rumours and conspiracy theories (such a as police cover up of Grenfell deaths), but continue to avoid scrutiny by (borrowing from Donald Trump) substantiating them only by quoting dubious hearsay ?

Grumpy suspects that Starmer may well have cause to regret this choice as a result of the inevitable distractions his new Secretary’s utterings will surely bring.

COVID Con-Sumption

Jonathan Sumption’s life is an extraordinary litany of high achievement; Eton, Magdalen, and then a stellar legal career. He has devoted his life to a belief that the Judiciary is one of the essential three pillars (along with the executive and the legislature) of a stable and equitable society.

He got a first in History, which is creditable, but this hardly seems to qualify him for opining widely on epidemiology, which he has chosen to do frequently recently. In October, he argued for the approach set out in the Great Barrington Declaration, which has promoted an entirely hypothetical reliance on ‘herd immunity’. He cites as support for his argument that 35,000 ‘experts’ signed the declaration as somehow lending it credibility.

These experts included “Mr Banana Rama”, “Dr Johnny Fartpants”, “Dr Person Fakename, “Professor Notaf Uckingclue”, and “Prof Cominic Dummings”, along with numerous homeopaths, physiotherapists, massage therapists, and a performer of Mongolian overtone singing. Perhaps he thought that Professor Uckingclue was better qualified than the Chief Medical Officer for England, Chris Whitty.

However, the point of this entry is to note that having said that he knew no-one who intended to follow the Governments edicts (and he presumably did not intend to do so himself) and posed the question, “why on earth should they?”. This is an extraordinary statement from a ex Supreme Court member. The answer is surely that unless and until Statutory Instrument 350/2020 is struck down by that same court he was a member of as ultra vires (which he claims) it is the law.

Picking and choosing which laws one follows on the basis of whether you agree with them or not is a formula for anarchy. Such folk can be seen any day on motorways as they overtake at 100mph in their BMW 750is. Let’s hope that Sumption does not come into contact with a mugger who doesn’t agree with restrictions on violent robbery.

But where are the howls of establishment indignation on this incitement to break the law? Leftie vultures sought to fry Dominic Cumins for ignoring the rules, but when this libertarian geriatric advocates exactly that, not a squeak.

UK repression

UK mounted police beat bystander

The recent furore about China’s introduction of “new” legislation for Hong Kong (albeit agreed in principle by the British for over two decades) dealing with Treason, Sedition, Secession and other national security measures and the anguished squeals from many in the West about the destruction of democracy there, simply reminded Grumpy that the UK has one of, if not the, most repressive state regimes in the world for a supposed democracy.

As Grumpy has noted before, Britain ruled Hong Kong as a colonial power, resulting from acts of war by the UK state to allow lethal narcotics dealing by a private company. From that point, in over a century and a half, no Hong Kong subject ever had the opportunity to vote for his/her leader, who instead was imposed by edict from 6,000 miles away by their overseas masters. It must have surely irritated the Chinese in recovering their own illegally annexed territory to then have the the UK government seek to enforce on Chinese subjects a regime with suffrage (albeit limited), having themselves denied this to the citizens for 150+ years.

As part of the hand back of the territory, Article 23 of Basic Law (the Hong Kong ‘constitution’), placed an obligation on the Hong Kong Legislature to enact laws to sanction and prohibit any act of “treason, secession, sedition, subversion against the Central People’s Government, or theft of state secrets, to prohibit foreign political organisations or bodies from conducting political activities in the Region, and to prohibit political organisations or bodies of the Region from establishing ties with foreign political organisations or bodies”. When The Hong Kong Legislative Council failed to do so for 17 years the Chinese government stepped in to enforce the agreed laws.

It surely cannot be unreasonable that the Chinese government sought to fill the gap in legal structures following the handback of Hong Kong to protect itself – as every state does – against those citizens who seek to usurp or overthrow legitimate government. Any objections must surely therefore be matters of implementation, and not of principle; but for political reasons the USA and UK have seized on this to undertake a bout of China bashing.

Much has been made of the key elements of “treason, secession, sedition, subversion” and the fact that, amongst other things, some offences carried life sentences. Grave warnings have been given that the City / State would be subject to surveillance, random searching, and property search without warrant. Right leaning conservatives huffed into their copy of the Daily Telegraph either ignorant of, or unconcerned by, the equally repressive structures of British law, subjecting citizens to a controlling and surveillance regime which not even the USA of Donald Trump would even dare to contemplate. A few examples might serve to highlight this.

As an example, ‘Treason’ under the new laws has been made an offence and has a maximum penalty of life imprisonment. <gasp!> But wait, Treason is an offence in UK law and carries the same penalty. Lest it be thought that wartime Lord Haw-Haw was the last person charged, as recently as 2014 Philip Hammond (as Secretary of State for Defence) considered charges of High Treason against UK citizens considered to be islamic extremists. In July 2020, Safiyya Amira Shaikh was sentenced to life for planning a terrorist attack on St Paul’s cathedral; the simple fact is that the British penalties for seeking to attack or overthrow the state are no less severe than those introduced into Hong Kong.

In Part II of this post, Grumpy will highlight how ignorant, disinterested and cosseted politicians allowed repressive legislation to be introduced – some of which was twice struck down for breaching human rights by either the High Court or the European Court of Justice.

Brexit is done – drop the term

Politicians and the press are still using the term ‘Brexit’. Brexit referred to the process of withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union; that has now happened, and the UK is no longer a member. It’s done. The UK has left. Brexit per se is over; it is as the Norwegian Blue. There is no reason for anybody to use the term, as it is irrelevant.

The process now taking place is a transition under the framework of the Withdrawal Agreement and the non-binding Political Declaration. So why is the ‘Brexit’ term so widely used by not only the Westminster cohort, but the representatives of the EU, and in particular M. Barnier ?

Grumpy takes the view that there are two basic reasons for this persistence, The first is the obvious one of conflating the current process with the divisions and traumas of the Brexit tussle; it helps to make it easier for those that wish for the outcome to be a closer relationship than is now likely, to build opposition. Secondly, although more speculative as an assessment, there are those who still harbour that alternative outcome wish, and search for a mechanism to reverse what they perceive as the ‘no deal’ process being followed by BoJo. This is harder to do if it accepted that the process is over and the debate terminated. Casting it as a continuation of the Brexit battle might foster rebellion to whatever is brought back as an agreement.

This slightly delusional attitude is shown in a much more unadulterated form in M Barnier. In week 2 May, he complained that ” The UK did not wish to commit seriously on a number of fundamental points” and that “failed to engage substantially” in the negotiations. What he actually means is that the UK has refused to roll over and accede to their demands.

In the Brexit negotiations, the EU sought, and succeeded, because of the weakness and complicity of the then negotiators, to set the agenda – the enemy of a balanced negotiation. Now the UK is an independent state, the EU is still seeking to do the same, and it is hoped that this rather arrogant ploy is rejected comprehensively. The approach of the UK shouldn’t be a surprise to Barnier; he merely has to read May’s Mansion House speech, although they were under her leadership hollow words.

No more. The EU has no leverage to dictate to the UK, and the current process should be what it always should have been before – a negotiation, not a capitulation, and a recognition of the UK’s not negotiable principles, just as they demand a recognition of theirs.

C

High UK death rates

Coronavirus has (as at 12.04.20) infected some 1,784,300 people round the world, and killed some 108,900 of them; a mortality rate of about 6%. What requires some explanation is why mortality rates have been so much higher in the UK than in other countries.

In Portugal, Canada, Austria, Germany, and South Korea, for example, rates are significantly lower. A German contracting coronavirus has a 1 in 45 chance of dying, whereas in the UK it is more than 1 in 8 – more than 5 times the rate in Germany (see footnote for numbers)

These are pretty terrifying odds, and even more so when the distribution of mortality with age is factored in. The above are averages for all ages; so for those of Grumpy’s age, the statistics are far worse, and pushed it to the level more often associated with more ostensibly malign infections.

This disparity may be due to differences in levels of preparedness, better funded and equipped health facilities in the countries with lower rates, age distribution of the population, or the timing and nature of the political decisions taken as the scale of the pandemic unfolded.

Postmortems don’t help the corpse, and “if only we had …” conclusions are pointless. What is essential is that the reason for the disparities are determined, and (to use the hackneyed expression so beloved of politicians before they do precisely nothing) “lessons learned”. This time, however, the economic rubble left in the broken businesses of voters might just be the catalyst for a more meaningful review of ‘rare event’ planning.

CountryCasesDeaths% deaths
Italy152,27119,46812.79
UK78,9919,87512.50
Belgium28,0183,34611.94
Netherlands24,4132,64310.83
Spain161,85216,48010.18
Sweden10,1518878.74
Switzerland25,1071,0364.13
USA525,55920,3043.86
Ireland8,9283203.58
Portugal15,9874702.94
Canada23,1956482.79
Austria13,7993372.44
Germany123,8782,7362.21
S Korea10,4802112.01
Israel10,7431010.94
World17843311089626.10